It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a sign or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
